It’s prediction time, people. Time to lay my cards on the line and show what kind of wisdom (ha!) I can offer up now that the season is almost here. As someone that calls Chicago home, I see more Big 10 football than most fans would like to admit. With that said, 2010 could be a very impressive year for a conference that will soon be adding Nebraska.
Home/away scheduling will play a role in this year’s conference outcome more than any other. It could even impact the national title game. On the flip-side of the coin, there are a few teams in the Big 10 that will likely have coaching vacancies in 2011. Note: Those teams are at and/or near the bottom.
And away we go…
1. Iowa
Predicted Regular Season Finish: 10-2
Key Games: 9/18 @ Arizona, 10/23 vs. Wisconsin, 11/30 vs. Ohio State
The Hawkeyes have the most favorable Big 10 schedule among contending teams in a year where it could pay HUGE dividends. The Hawks get Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State at home, which is vital when considering how well they play at Kinnick. Traveling to Arizona (who is very underrated) will be no easy task for a team that historically doesn’t cross the country well.
Personnel-wise the Hawks lose a few key players but retain a good chuck of their squad. This includes potential top-10 pick Adrian Clayborn and quarterback Ricky Stanzi who is pretty good when he’s not throwing it between the numbers of the other team. They also get Jewel Hampton back from injury which will be big if he stays healthy and out of the blotters.
In the end, I feel the Hawks win the showdown against Ohio State but lose at Arizona and another game – perhaps an unpredictable Hawkeye-like road let down. I still feel this will be enough to get them the Big 10 title and send them to the Rose Bowl.
2. Ohio State
Predicted Regular Season Finish: 10-2
Key Games: 9/11 vs. Miami, 10/16 @ Wisconsin, 11/20 @ Iowa
Ohio State is the national champion pick for many and you can certainly see why. The team has SEC-type talent and they don’t play an SEC-type schedule. With that said, they have far from a cakewalk to the national title game. The early Miami battle will be tough and traveling to Wisconsin and Iowa will be a struggle. Still, this team has very few weaknesses.
I think Ohio State beats Miami at home, but feel they’ll lose to both Wisconsin and Iowa on the road. Absolutely brutal places to play and teams that matchup well defensively against them Iowa gets the edge for the Rose Bowl, but I still feel an at-large BCS berth is going to happen. Wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the top-2 flip. Here’s hoping that the late-November showdown against the Hawkeyes has national championship implications and it very well could.
3. Wisconsin
Predicted Regular Season Finish: 10-2
Key Games: 10/2 @ Michigan State, 10/16 vs. Ohio State, 10/23 @ Iowa
Here’s a team that has taken some flak for being ranked twelfth in the AP Poll, but I really don’t see why. Like Iowa, Wisconsin has a very manageable 2010 schedule and should cruise in a lot of games, particularly early on. Having to play Ohio State then travel to Iowa the very next week, however, is one of the toughest stretch of schedule that any team has to deal with in the entire country.
John Clay is a beast, but he’s also coming back from offseason surgery on both ankles. All indications are that the focal point of the Wisconsin offense is ready to roll, however, come game-1. Wide receiver Nick Toon has ability and QB Scott Tolzien has shown that he can provide the team with a kick beyond the run-game. Things start easy, but heading to Michigan State is a game I can see the Badgers dropping. The 2-game stretch against Ohio State and Iowa as mentioned is simply too much. Tough to get up for both games, win or lose against Ohio State.
4. Penn State
Predicted Regular Season Finish: 8-4
Key Games: 9/11 @Alabama, 10/2 @ Iowa, 11/13 @ Ohio State
After much thought about whom to take 4th, I’ve decided to go with Penn State. Talk about a rough road: games at Alabama, at Iowa, and at Ohio State are hard to fathom. I don’t see a “W” in any of those. With that said, PSU does have some cupcakes and very winnable conference games at home.
They’re replacing their reliable QB with someone totally unknown, literally. This, of course, could be the difference in finishing 4th and finishing 6th. Running back Evan Royster decided to return for his senior year and this will help his draft stock and the team a tremendous amount. This kid can absolutely play.
5. Michigan State
Predicted Regular Season Finish: 8-4
Key Games: 9/18 vs. Notre Dame, 10/2 vs. Wisconsin, 10/30 @ Iowa
The Spartans are a tough team to figure in 2010, but I expect them to improve a significant amount from their 6-7 record a year ago. We will know a lot about the team after their battle with Notre Dame early on, and MSU is fortunate to miss out on Ohio State in 2010. Led by linebacker Greg Jones, the defense should be better than we’ve seen in previous years.
The question has been and will remain, can they win games late in the season? We shall see…
6. Northwestern
Predicted Regular Season Finish: 7-5
Key Games: 11/6 @ Penn State, 11/13 vs. Iowa, 11/27 vs. Wisconsin
Although the Cats lost their QB and some playmakers on offense, I like where this team is headed and I like their schedule. Road games at Penn State and Wisconsin are tough as is their home game against Iowa, but the rest appear to be very winnable games.
If they stay close to their season from a year ago, Northwestern could do even better than many believe and put the team back on the map.
7. Purdue
Predicted Regular Season Finish: 7-5
Key Games:9/4 @ Notre Dame, 10/23 @ Ohio State, 11/6 vs. Wisconsin
Enter Robert Marvee the former Hurricane turned Boilermaker. I liked what I saw from him a few years ago and expect him to continue his improvements in ’10 and beyond. How he performs will be one of the most interesting stories in all of football in the early going. The opener against Notre Dame will be interesting, but they get some softer competition before getting the big boys of the Big 10 late in the year.
8. Michigan
Predicted Regular Season Finish: 6-6
Key Games: 9/4 vs. UCONN, 10/16 vs. Iowa, 11/27 at Ohio State
The toughest team for me to predict in the Big 10, and while Rich Rod has a documented track record of improving teams in year 3, I just can’t see it with this team. On the field, I feel they’re better than they have been in recent years but I also think the competition has improved. And what about the QB situation? I say there’s a 0% chance both Forcier and Rodriguez return in 2011 and I say it’s 50/50 either are back.
9. Indiana
Predicted Regular Season Finish: 5-7
Key Games: 10/9 @ Ohio State, 11/6 vs. Iowa, 11/13 @ Wisconsin
Wide receiver Tandon Doss is a player, but this is a team that has questions all over the field. Still, the Hoosiers could hover around .500 thanks to their weak out-of-conference schedule. If they can pull out a few wins in games they’ll likely be underdogs in, IU could actually finish 6-6 or even 7-5. Just don’t see it on paper, though.
10. Illinois
Predicted Regular Season Finish: 4-8
Key Games: 10/2 vs. Ohio State, 10/9 @ Penn State 10/16 @ Michigan State
The outlook is bleak and Ron Zook seems destined to be fired from Illinois if he doesn’t pull of a miracle. And this would be one hell of a miracle. On the bright side, they miss both Iowa and Wisconsin, which is really good this year. What’s tough, however, is the Illini have to play OSU, Penn State, and Michigan State in three consecutive weeks in October. Not good for Mr. Zook.
11. Minnesota
Predicted Regular Season Finish: 3-9
Key Games: 9/13 vs. USC, 10/9 @ Wisconsin, 10/30 vs. Ohio State
Tim Brewster and co. are in for a looooong season. No, the Gophers don’t have a whole lot of talent, but their schedule doesn’t help them out much either. USC, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa, plus road games at Purdue and Michigan State will make for a long season. Senior QB Adam Weber should be able to make some plays but it won’t be nearly enough. Trouble ahead…
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