Bodog’s 2012 BCS National Championship odds are out, and we’ve now had plenty of time to digest them. Some of the lines are already moving, bets are being made, and it’s obvious that things will look awfully different next year. This trend is obvious with the recently crowned champs, and it’s clear that this offseason is going to be an active one in terms of player departures for the Auburn Tigers.
Cam Newton, Nick Fairley, and Darvin Adams are headed to the NFL, along with 11 of 22 starters and a staggering 7 out of 8 total lineman. Although Auburn does have some very young raw talent, Bodog pegged Auburn at 50/1 when the odds released. Since that point, announcements have been made official and some money has come in. Auburn is now 70/1 to win the ’12 BCS championship, just a shade in front of Michigan (75/1) and Cincinnati (80/1). Woah.
The other championship team isn’t dropping nearly as far, but it can be had for some reasonable odds. Oregon provides good value for those that think they can get through the Pac-12, that’s weird to type, next year. LaMichael James and Darron Thomas are back, but the Ducks are losing quite a bit as well. Still, they should be able to score at will and can be yours for 14/1 right now. Not too shabby…
With our BCS title contenders out of the way, the team that we have to talk about is clearly Oklahoma. They are your favorites right to win the 2012 championship and have some tremendous players coming back next season. You can debate Ryan Broyles spot in the NFL, but you can’t debate his college production. He and Landry Jones are enough to keep this team in every game, but they’re also loaded at running back, and linebacker Travis Lewis is back for his senior year. The Sooners are 7/2 to win it all, but that’s a tough price to endorse considering this team’s history of road letdowns.
Still, they are the team to beat. No question.
The other very fascinating team near the top is Florida State. At 10/1 the odds makers are expecting a massive step up from the Seminoles, and it’s clear that momentum is going in their favor. Jimbo Fisher was able to score late in the recruiting game last year, and in 2011 he’s assembling what many are thinking will be a top 5 class. On the field, they lose Christian Ponder but will be returning a solid core group of talent as well. Playing in what should be a down ACC, however, the Seminoles are in a great spot to roll through their schedule, even if their true potential is a year or two away.
The team with perhaps the most enticing odds in my eyes, throws on proud B1G cap, has to be Ohio State. Although they’ll lose the Fab Tat’d Five for the first five games next year, they should be able to get through with wins. Yes, a game at Miami will be ____________ (fill in blank), and Michigan State will also provide a challenge, but this team could be loaded when full force. 20/1 is screaming to be bet, and there’s a high probability they’ll make a run if they can stay unbeaten early.
Familiar Faces
Alabama 15/2: Like their rival Auburn, Alabama is also losing a ton of talent to the NFL, but Bama is in a much better spot to replace them. The defense, which was young and inexperienced this year as a whole, will be a strength for this team in 2011. Very capable.
Florida 12/1: Enter Will Muschamp and Charlie Weis. What do you make of a team that struggled so mightily? Well, the odds folks certainly think Florida will bounce back, and they have a ton of young talent that should get much, much better. Still, 12/1?
LSU 12/1: The Mad Hatter stays and LSU should certainly be in the thick of things in the SEC next year. The fact that Gary Crowton is out as OC means the sky is the limit for the Tiger offense. Could be very, very good and understand a play.
Boise State 12/1: Kellen Moore is back, although Boise State will lose Titus Young and others to the NFL. Even if Boise runs the table, there’s no guarantee they even get to the game. This makes them a tough team to back. Add in a very tough opener against Georgia, and I’m going elsewhere.
Penn State 20/1: Are the odds makers watching the same thing I am? 20/1 seems like a stretch, and it really seems to be throwing away money. Interesting that “experts” are high on them; I just don’t feel the same way.
Stanford 25/1: Andrew Luck returns, isn’t that worth a wager in itself? Well, Stanford lost their coach but should keep a very similar system with an internal hire. They’re losing personnel, however, and a repeat performance will be tough.
The Price is Right
Oklahoma State 30/1: They get back Brandon Weeden and Will Blackmon, which means they’ll put up points. Although it’ll be a tough task to get by OU next year, they should be a very nice team in 2011. 30/1 is worth a shot if you think they’re ready.
Texas A&M 40/1: Here’s another team headed in the right direction. A championship run might be too big of a jump, in fact it likely is, but 40/1 is a bargain. I’m a bit surprised they didn’t get more respect here, but might be good news if you like ‘em.
Georgia 50/1: Unlikely, no question, but Aaron Murray will be better and he was already damn good as a freshmen. This would require a huge step forward, but I do expect the Dawgs to have a better season. 50/1 is tough to turn down.
South Carolina 50/1: Again, putting my faith (or perhaps your dollar) into a player specifically. Marcus Lattimore will be back, and while the Gamecocks are losing some quality players, they could be poised to bring in younger, play-right-away talent. Mr Clowney, we’re looking in your direction…
Visit Bodog.com for all the odds as we try not to resort to cannibalism early in the college football offseason….
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