Last week it was about reaching .500. Done.

This week it’s about staying above .500, although this is where it gets slightly more complicated. We’ll get to precisely why that’s the case and how some early Thanksgiving destruction could throw things for a loop, but first let’s explore what went right and what went wrong a week ago.

My first voyage in the Westgate SuperContest—courtesy of Odds Shark—has been mainly an upward climb. Things have gone well, at times, although sustaining a long, stable run simply hasn’t happened. Take last week for example.

The good came with the Raiders, the Giants (barely), and the Seahawks against the Cardinals. And while we have a moment, let us celebrate the most incredible “you shouldn’t be celebrating here” celebration of the season.

I love you so much, Raiders.

The bad came when I picked the Lions against the Patriots and the Texans against the Bengals. Tom Brady has done a number on me this season, and Cincinnati decided it was time to look like the team we expected to see before the season began.

Overall, I ended up 3-2. That’s not horrendous—and it pushed me over .500 for the year—although the excitement was short-lived. You’ll see why as we dive into this week’s picks.

As always, the goal is to make Odds Shark’s football-picking super computer cry. Anything more is gravy. To do so this week, however, we’re going to need to close strong. Thanksgiving was not kind.

 

Bears (+7) vs. Lions: I thought that Chicago would take advantage with Detroit’s offense struggling, and I thought that the Bears’ offense would make plays. This all looked so promising for 15 minutes.

49ers (+1) vs. Seahawks: Here’s the thing. When the owner of the team you pick apologizes for his organization performance shortly following the game—on Thanksgiving no less—chances are it did not go well. 0-2 ahoy.

Jaguars (+2.5) vs. Giants: Let us start our winning ways by backing a team handed a fascinating line by Vegas. Although New York is coming off a game in which it played quite well—and Odell Beckham stopped the earth from spinning with one catch—I think Jacksonville gets them at a great time here.

Vikings (-2.5) vs. Panthers: I’m backing Teddy Bridgewater and Minnesota giving points to Carolina. There is no way to feel good about where the Panthers are trending—as evident by this line—which is why we’re feeling confident in the short fav.

Falcons (+2.5) vs. Cardinals: This is not just a Drew Stanton fade, although last week’s performance against Seattle certainly is worth noting. I believe Arizona is still a very good team; but I also think your playoff-ready Atlanta Falcons come away victorious here. God bless the NFC South.

A .500 record in one the most well-known football contests in the world is not going to earn you much of anything. In fact, picking as many picks right as you do wrong is sorta assumed when you plop yourself in the Westgate SuperContest. That is the point of entry. Anything less should be mocked; anything more comes with a follow-up question: How much more?

If the answer is a considerable amount—as it is with many SuperContest hopefuls—than the result might just be an enormous sum of money. If that is not the situation—and it is most certainly not for me, as I navigate my first SuperContest entry courtesy of Odds Shark—than you have to reshape expectations.

As it stands heading into Week 12, I am one game under the .500 mark. The overall output has improved over the past five weeks, but again, the results are what they are.

I finished the week going 3-2 with my picks, the two losses being Buffalo on Thursday and Indianapolis in truly dumpster fire-ish fashion on Sunday night. The three wins came with Arizona, Kansas City and Houston.

Let us turn our attention forward to this week, where things—for once—got off to a good start. As always, the goal (beyond simply getting to .500) is to beat Odd Shark’s game-picking super computer until it feels real computer sadness.

Fade accordingly.

Raiders (+7) vs. Chiefs: Finally, a Thursday winner. Despite Oakland’s best efforts to avoid covering this game in the second half, we start the week 1-0 and, for the time being, hit .500. Now, will it last?

Giants (+3.5) vs. Cowboys: This is an interesting line. I’m backing New York, keeping the dream alive that Eli Manning will avoid throwing double-digit interceptions.  If that’s the case, cover ahoy. (Maybe.)

Texans (-1.5) vs. Bengals: Arian Foster’s status is worth watching, although Alfred Blue—a former LSU option—looked good spelling in. Let’s assume that Foster does not play and deal with the drop off. This is the Mallett-Dalton TCU-Arkansas game you always wanted, and I’m going with the one more likely to kill a spectator with an errant throw.

Seahawks (-6.5) vs. Cardinals: Seattle should bounce back here, even if this isn’t the same Seahawks team many of us expected to see this season. Drew Stanton, while more than serviceable, gets a taste of a still impressive pass rush.

Lions (+7) vs. Patriots: The #FadePats trend continues here, even though such trends have resulted in horrendous pick violence before. (See: Last Week.) The timing of this game is interesting, however, especially with Green Bay on deck for Brady and Co. The Lions don’t win, but they play tight.

I picked the Bears last week. Let’s address this waterfall of sadness out of the gate.

Take these rotten vegetables and hand them out. I want you to throw them at me until they are all gone, or until I’m no longer standing. Whatever comes first. (Let’s assume I fall first.)

My respectable two-week run in Westgate SuperContest feels like ancient history. My first go-around in the contest—courtesy of Odds Shark—has been an avalanche of errors with the occasional positive here and there.

After solid back-to-back showing, including my first 5-0 week, things turned south. I lost with the Bears (gross), the Bills (gross, especially given their love of punting) and the Buccaneers, which can happen when you bet Tampa Bay. I won with the 49ers and the Lions, which pushed the overall results to 2-3.

Turning our attention toward Week 11, we are reminded that it is in fact Week 11. There are not many of these left, which is why—regardless of standing—we’re hoping to remain competitive. Oh, and we’re certainly hoping to beat Odds Shark’s super computer, which remains the primary objective.

Bills +5 vs. Dolphins: Buffalo’s offense decided—again—that it was not going to make the trip. As a result, here’s an 0-1 start on the week.

Texans +3 vs. Browns: Let’s assume Arian Foster doesn’t play, which means it will come down to Ryan Mallett in his very first start. So why is this line only three? I’m efforting to find out here, apparently, and I think Houston surprises.

Chiefs -1.5 vs. Seahawks: Seattle playing out of its building is a much different animal, and the same could be said about Kansas City at home versus away. Ultimately, I think you’ll get an ugly, low-scoring matchup, one that KC will finish ahead in.

Cardinals -2.5 vs. Lions: The loss of Carson Palmer is significant, although Drew Stanton should come in—weapons at his disposal—and play well. The adjustment shouldn’t be all that significant; Arizona is still a really quality team.

Colts -3 vs. Patriots: I’ve gone against New England a handful of times this season—in this contest—and lost each time. Here, however, I expect the Pats to be the popular pick given how they’ve looked, and I’m going the other way to back the bearded wonder instead.